Knowing how to navigate uncertainty, an essential skill

Embracing uncertainty, reducing the unexpected

Remember, when you learned to drive, you were taught to anticipate areas of change. You were able to identify the obstacles around you according to their speed and learn to anticipate a range of possibilities. You have also understood that accidents happen when you fail to anticipate an obstacle or misjudge its speed and are surprised by the unexpected. In the life of an organisation, whatever its nature and size, as on the road, reducing the unexpected consists in making a broad inventory of the phenomena influencing its environment, becoming aware of their real speed of evolution and identifying the major 'invariants' which structure the landscape. From these data, multiple actions and trajectories then follow. This approach leads to a practice that is indispensable in times of great uncertainty.

The 3 options when faced with an unexpected situation

• Do nothing

Is this really an option? No, a wait-and-see approach is often the worst in a crisis. 

The stakes are too high and the short, medium and long-term consequences in times of crisis are often too serious not to be taken into account as soon as possible.

• Preparing for the worst

Many people see risk management as the best protection. They identify actions to be taken in a worst-case scenario and hope that the situation will improve. While this approach may be attractive, particularly in risk-averse companies, this conservatism can lead to draconian measures, which may prevent the organisation from being competitive when market conditions improve and thus prevent opportunities from being seized.

Focusing on a single worst-case scenario is not a good answer.

• Preparing for different future scenarios

It is impossible to predict a single outcome of a situation, let alone crisis situations such as 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 crisis. Therefore, the optimal solution is to be able to execute and monitor the evolution of several complex scenarios at the same time. The Scenario Planning methodology consists of projecting the organisation into a more or less distant future, identifying the possible environments in which it could find itself, working on the invariants, the major trends and the weak signals to identify the risks and opportunities for which it can prepare itself today.

The approach of the great innovators.

• Building on the major "invariants
  
  

  Building on the big "invariants" is always a good approach to anticipate possible futures. For example, in retail: price, selection, delivery and discovery have always been valued by customers.

• Embracing the speed at which change is transforming the market

  Learn by doing and accept the quick mistakes that allow you to learn and converge as the future unfolds. This means looking at initiatives for the next 6-12 months, learning, progressing and adapting as change emerges.

• Do not use strategic plans as a security blanket against uncertainty.

  Constructing possible versions of the future 5 - 10 years ahead allows you to anticipate potential waves of disruption as they occur. Even if the initial plan is always wrong in every respect, it allows you to move forward and start learning as you go. Preferring planning paralysis that avoids mistakes is often what condemns large companies to disruptions caused by more agile players.

Find out more about Brightness' Management in Uncertainty training programme

Scenario Planning and generative iterations

The methodological approach we propose in this programme is to start with finality rather than extrapolation into the future. It is a way of thinking that allows us to understand why things happen. The understanding leads to predictions about what we can expect to happen in the future and, more importantly, how you can exercise some control over that future. The value of this methodology lies in the speed with which you can generate workable alternatives to your current thinking.

It is based on key competences:

• detect weaksignals and trends

• recognise patterns in the evolution of trends (laws and patterns)

• create narratives and describe possible versions of the future

• build new solutions and business models to address them

• convince to engage around the resulting projects

You will cover a wide range of topics, including:

• What can we influence within an organisation and what will most influence success in the future?

• How to identify weak signals, trends and build scenarios?

• What is the relationship between the scenarios and the forecasts?

• Who does what in scenario practice?

• How to use scenarios to build solutions

• How to evolve the strategy through an agile and iterative approach

Target

• Directorates General

• Managers

• Strategic teams

• Innovation departments

A programme designed by Michel Levy Provençal

After creating TEDxParis, the first TEDx conference in Europe in 2009, Michel Levy Provençal now devotes his time to developing the Brightness agency. He works with companies and public actors by delivering conferences and coaching their leaders. He teaches at SciencesPo and has published three methodological and prospective books since 2017. He also writes regular columns in Les Echos. He is recognised as one of the leading voices in the French innovation ecosystem.

Brightness podcasts

Navigating in times of uncertainty

The chapters :

• The Gray Rhino: don't underestimate the obvious.

• Understanding cognitive biases in the midst of the coronavirus crisis.

• How to act against Fake News?

• Have the collapsologists won?

• What geopolitical crisis scenarios are plausible in the short term?

• Is an Internet blackout a plausible scenario in the short term?

• Can fiction help to anticipate the future?

• The OODA loop: military methodology for uncertainty management?

• What is sensemaking?

• How does our brain anticipate future crises?